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The year has ended with nothing but bangs and whimpers, and now it’s time to start looking to the future. Trying to read the tea leaves and predict the coming trials, tribulations and victories for the ever-changing weed industry is tougher than it looks, but we still tried to do it anyway.
Join us as we look into the crystal ball of weed to guess at what the next year will bring us.
Weed Will Be Rescheduled
Many predict that the Drug Enforcement Administration (DEA) will follow through on the Health and Human Services (HHS) recommendation to reschedule marijuana. The HHS is considered the federal government’s scientific authority, and if it recommends rescheduling, there’s not a lot that the DEA can do to argue against it.
The HHS recommendation was made last August, so the DEA has already had half a year to make its final decision. With pressure from advocacy groups and lawmakers building, the DEA will have to make its move soon. Whatever moves the DEA has been making behind the scenes to prepare for the big change will have to be completed sooner than later.
This might not be the win that advocates think it will be, however. Rescheduling weed will not automatically decriminalize it and might actually make it easier for policymakers to believe that marijuana reform is no longer a pressing matter.
SAFER Banking Will Not Pass
Here we are at another election year, and that means there will likely be little movement on weed legislation—for or against. Election years are historically bad for reform efforts as the incumbent administration tries its damnedest to keep every voter it has and won’t push anything controversial that could potentially ostracize supporters.
Since lawmakers can’t even get marijuana banking passed with bipartisan support and pressure from both the cannabis and banking sectors, don’t expect it to pass in 2024.
Cannabis Businesses Will Keep Struggling
The pain being felt by New Mexico marijuana businesses will only get worse in the coming year. As other states with more mature markets can attest, large numbers of cannabis producers plus overtaxation plus excellent growing conditions plus the loss of novelty equals low profits.
This is the natural evolution of all new industries: Things always start with a rush as entrepreneurs race to cash in on the novel trend, but the novelty eventually wears out and demand plateaus at its natural level. The top players are able to weather the dip while those who can’t are forced under.
While it won’t comfort those who are watching their businesses fold before their eyes, the ultimate result will be a more well-rounded and reliable industry.
THC Drinks Will Become More Popular
Get ready for THC-infused alcoholic beverages to become much more popular this year. A number of companies are now experimenting with these products, and big cannabis players like Tilray have been snatching up craft beer brands. Even established alcohol companies like Pabst are looking to get in on the trend.
According to cannabis market data collector Headset, THC drink sales in the U.S. and Canada increased by about 40 percent between 2021 and 2022, and sales are expected to increase even further in the coming year. According to Vantage Market Research, the alcoholic THC drink market is estimated to be valued at $1.1 Billion by 2030.
THC drinks are easy to consume and have a much faster onset time than edibles, which makes them much more attractive to casual consumers.
Consumption Areas Will Proliferate
Stigmas against smoking marijuana are quickly becoming a thing of the past. Weed users no longer have to hide in closets and back rooms to get high. They can now move their smoke sessions into the living room, where everyone can see and smell.
But weed tourists from out-of-state don’t have access to living rooms while traveling, and hotels don’t allow smoking on property, so how are they supposed to legally consume the weed that they legally purchased?
New Mexico’s cannabis law allows for the licensing of public consumption areas (read: weed clubs), where consumers can relax and toke up in a public setting. Only a few have opened their doors, though, and there doesn’t seem to be a ton of clients visiting them.
But young people are becoming less interested in drinking alcohol these days. According to a 2023 Gallup poll, 18- to 34-year-olds who said they’d ever had a drink dropped by 10 percentage points in the last ten years (down from 72 percent to 62 percent).
Meanwhile, another Gallup poll from the same month found that current marijuana use in the same age group is at an all-time high of 29 percent—nearly a third of that population.
Do the math. Those young adults will be needing a place where they can smoke weed with their friends.
Research Will Increase
Weed advocacy group NORML recently reported that more than 30,000 scientific papers on cannabis have been published in the last decade. Companies are dying to throw money at researchers for more data about marijuana. The old trope that there isn’t enough science just won’t cut it anymore.
Barriers to weed research are being removed all the time. In late 2022, President Joe Biden signed the Medical Marijuana and Cannabidiol Research Expansion Act into law. The law eased a number of restrictions that scientists had to navigate to conduct clinical research on pot and compelled the government to guarantee that an adequate supply of marijuana is always available to researchers.
That means clinical studies using retail-level weed and actual users are already being conducted. If the DEA reschedules cannabis this year, the best thing about it will be that even more research opportunities will open up and the cat will truly be out of the bag.